What chance? | About Sport Zest


About calculations

The calculations in Sport Zest are made from sophisticated mathematical algorithms based on a careful statistical analysis of the teams.

As a general rule, all teams entering each new competition on equal terms. That is, except for the factor "play at home," which has great statistical significance, all teams have the same chances.

In the course of the championship, the model fits to increasing its accuracy. In general, from the middle of a competition the predictions become very reliable (they have a relatively low statistical error).

Some competitions are short or show special characteristics, therefore they do not adapt well to this approach, and are treated differently.

The FIFA World Cup is one. In this competition, we use the previous results of the national teams, especially from the games of the knockout stage of the competition, as if they were actually part of the championship.

For tennis, the analysis of the chances of competitors is based on their record in other tournaments played in a similar type of floor.

Finally, we have no doubt that we will never capture all the complexities of the real world into mathematical models, but we will strive to, within reasonable limits, provide a useful and unique perspective.


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Important information

Although the prognostics in this website are based on sophisticated calculations, its purpose is purely recreational, and its use as a basis for bets is not recommended.

The calculation algorithms work within reasonable parameters of approximation and the results must be understood under this perspective. Too small probabilities, below 0.005%, for example, can be represented by 0%.


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